By the numbers: Tobago Two
While there are 39 constituencies in Trinidad, there are only two constituencies in Tobago, Tobago East, and Tobago West. These two seats usually end up in the government whether the People’s National Movement (PNM) or United National Congress (UNC). Currently, the PNM is on the defensive in Tobago, with hopes of holding on to these two seats, but they face a serious challenge from the Progressive Democratic Patriots, the PDP.
Tobago East is the smallest constituency population-wise with 21,980 registered voters in 2015. Comparatively, the smallest constituency in Trinidad in 2015 was Port-of-Spain South with 23,777 registered voters. Tobago West in 2015 had approximately 26,150 registered voters.
Voter turnout in 2015 when the PNM won both seats stood at 51% in Tobago West and 52% in Tobago East. Comparatively, when the Tobago Organisation of the People (TOP) won both seats voter turnout was 61% and 65% in Tobago West and Tobago East respectively.
In 2010, the voter split in Tobago East was 58% favoring the TOP to the PNM’s 42%. During that same election, there was a 53%-47% in Tobago West. Based on the marginal seat definition of winning a seat by less than 4000 votes, both Tobago West and Tobago East would have been considered marginal seats after the 2010 election. The TOP won Tobago West by 940 votes in 2010 and Tobago East by 2126 votes.
In 2015, there was resounding support for the PNM in general elections. Two years prior, the PNM would have swept the TOP out of the Tobago House of Assembly 12–0, in Tobago’s 2013 local election, which consolidated support for the 2015 PNM victory. Turnout in Tobago West was 51% and 52% in Tobago East.
The PNM won 79% of the vote in Tobago West in 2015. The remaining 21% was the ‘not-PNM’ vote and consisted of the TOP and TF, the Tobago Forwards, which emerged from TOP. In Tobago East, the PNM received 69% of the vote, and while the remaining 30% was divided among the TOP, the TF, the ILP, and Watson Duke, who ran as an independent candidate.
While the PNM will defend both Tobago West and Tobago East, the 2017 THA election has established Tobago East as the political base on the PDP. The new party led by Watson Duke was able to win two electoral districts in the 12-member Tobago House of Assembly, both located in Tobago East. This could be an early indication that the 2020 election in Tobago East would be more like 2010 and less like 2015 when the PNM trounced the TOP and TF.
