By the numbers: The next 6 Marginal Seats
This is our second look at the marginal seats in the 2020 General Elections in Trinidad and Tobago. With elections slated for August 10th, there are approximately 11 marginal seats in Trinidad. In this analysis, a marginal seat is defined as a seat where any party won that constituency by less than 4000 votes in the previous general election, in this case, the 2015 general elections.
We will also examine whether these six seats in this analysis were considered marginal seats after the 2010 general elections. The data used for this analysis is from the results of the Trinidad and Tobago Election and Boundaries Commission 2010 and 2015 general elections reports.
Marginal Seat #6 is Cumuto/Manzanilla. Voter turnout in Cumoto/Manzanilla in 2015 was 71%. The UNC won this seat by 3,179 votes and will be defending this seat in the 2020 general elections. The voter split in 2015 was 42% PNM, 58% UNC. Compared to 2010, the UNC share of the vote in this marginal seat was 64% to the PNM’s 35% when voter turnout was 76%. After the 2010 election, Cumoto/Manzanilla was not a marginal seat, having won the seat by 5,935 votes.
Marginal Seat #7 is San Fernando West. The PNM will defend San Fernando West in 2020, having won the seat in 2015 by 3,310 votes. In 2015, voter turnout stood at 70%, slightly down when it was 72% in 2010, when the PP-COP (Congress of the People) won the seat, with a 53%-46% split for PP-COP and PNM respectively. In 2015, there was a 59%-40% voter split that favored the PNM. After 2010, San Fernando became a marginal seat when it was won by 1,251 votes.
Marginal Seat #8 is La Horquetta/Talparo. This seat was won by the PNM in 2015 with 3,422 votes. Voter turnout in the constituency stood at 70% in 2015 with a voter split of 58%-39%. In 2010, La Horquetta/Talparo had a 69% voter turnout and the PP won the seat by 1,079 votes, with 53% of the vote.
The last three marginal constituencies will be summarized using a table.
The article about the top five marginal seats can be found at, https://medium.com/@dashboardk12/by-the-numbers-all-seats-matter-but-marginals-seats-matters-most-the-top-5-a7c7a6aea43a.
