By the numbers: All Seats Matter, but Marginal Seats Matters Most: The TOP 5
We know that all seats matter in elections. While all seats matter, some seats matter most. In this post, we are going to examine the marginal seats also known constituencies in Trinidad. With the upcoming 2020 General Elections on August 10th, the campaigns, though present everywhere, the marginal seats are where elections are won in Trinidad. We will examine the top 5 marginals in Trinidad.
What makes a seat a marginal seat? In this analysis, a marginal seat is defined as a seat where any party won that constituency by less than 4000 votes.
The data used for this analysis is from the results of the Trinidad and Tobago Election and Boundaries Commission 2010 and 2015 general elections reports.
Heading into the 2020 General Election, the most marginal seat is Moruga/Tableland. The PNM won this seat in 2015 by 533 votes in 2015. There was a voter turnout of 76% with a split of 51%-49% for the PNM and the People’s Partnership-UNC respectively. In 2010, there was 77% voter turnout; however, the PP carried the seat by 2,947 votes, 57% to the PNM’s 42%. The PNM is clearly on the defense in Moruga/Tableland.
Marginal Seat #2 heading into the August 10th election is Chaguanas East. This is an interesting constituency that was represented by Jack Warner in 2010 under the PP, then turned Independent (Independent Liberal Party) after Warner left the government and we re-elected during a by-election. In 2015, the PNM won the seat by 1,424 votes. There was a 70% turnout in 2015 compared to a 74% voter turnout in 2010 when Jack Warner won the seat in the UNC led PP alliance. Based on our 4000 vote definition of a marginal seat, Chaguanas East, in 2010 was won by 4080 votes. The PNM will also be defending this marginal seat.
Marginal Seat #3 is Point-A-Pierre. Voter turnout in Point-A-Pierre in 2015 was 73%. The UNC won this seat by 1506 votes and will be defending this seat in the 2020 general elections. The voter split in 2015 was 46% PNM, 54% UNC. Compared to 2010, the UNC share of the vote in this marginal seat was 61% to the PNM’s 39% when voter turnout was 76%.
Marginal Seat #4 is St. Joseph. This marginal seat finds us in the heart of the East-West Corridor. The PNM will defend St. Joseph in 2020, having won the seat in 2015 with 1,631 votes. In 2015, voter turnout in St. Joseph stood at 71%, slightly down when it was 71% in 2010, when the UNC won the seat, with a 58%-42% split for UNC and PNM respectively. In 2015, there was a 54%-42% voter split that favored the PNM.
Marginal Seat #5 is Mayaro. Mayaro rounds up the list of our top 5 marginal seats in 2020, based on 2015. A defending UNC seat, the constituency was won by 2,894 votes in 2015. A voter turnout of 74% accounted for a 57%-43% UNC, PNM split. Compared to 2010, a 77% voter turnout accounted for a 63%-36% split that favored the UNC. Based on our definition of the winning by less than 4000 votes, Mayaro would not have been classified as marginal in 2015 because it was won by 5,516 votes in 2010.
